Wembley has a habit of producing afternoons that hinge on a single moment, and this Carabao Cup final was no different. For an hour, Arsenal matched Manchester City in every department that mattered. Then Kepa Arrizabalaga got two hands to a Bernardo Silva cross and dropped it, Nico O'Reilly nodded into an empty net, and four minutes later the cup was gone. Six years of waiting for a trophy extended by another chapter, in the space of four minutes, at a ground where we should have been celebrating.

The frustrating truth is that we were the better side for long stretches of the first half. James Trafford's triple save in the seventh minute, denying Kai Havertz and then Bukayo Saka twice in the space of three seconds, was the moment that kept City in a final they were losing at the time. Had any of those three gone in, this afternoon unfolds very differently. Instead it finished 0-0 at the break, City made their adjustments, and the second half belonged almost entirely to Guardiola's side.

The tactical story of this final begins with City's defensive shape, which was the detail that defined proceedings for long stretches of both halves. When Arsenal had the ball, City deployed four players in their first pressing line: Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki covered the centre, Jeremy Doku pushed extremely high on the left, and Antoine Semenyo varied his position but progressively moved higher as the first half developed, particularly when Declan Rice attempted to move wide on that side. Behind them, Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Matheus Nunes fanned across the pitch and were able to cover wide areas because of the compactness in City's first line.

The consequence was exactly what Guardiola intended. Arsenal's centre-backs and Kepa found themselves repeatedly passing the ball back and forth with no available passing lane into midfield. The build-up stalled repeatedly, momentum drained away, and what should have been a settled, controlled Arsenal start became a frustrated, passive one. Arteta acknowledged it plainly after the match, noting that his side had issues getting out from City's block and managing the ball effectively when they did regain it.

What kept Arsenal in the first half was the direct route to Viktor Gyokeres. When City pushed Nunes forward into attack, they left only two centre-backs in behind, and Gyokeres exploited that space repeatedly, running the channels, winning set-pieces high up the pitch and drawing Khusanov and Ake into defensive duels they were uncomfortable with. Havertz also made himself available in those moments, giving Arsenal a second body to compete against City's back line in transition. The Trafford triple save came directly from one of those sequences. Had any of the three gone in, the afternoon unfolds differently.

City's second-half shape was the decisive tactical shift of the final. O'Reilly made more forward runs through inside channels, working between Haaland and Doku, while Ake and Nunes pushed aggressively high from City's back line to compress the pitch. Cherki moved wider and earlier to combine with Semenyo, and City began to find good switches of play to penetrate the Arsenal penalty area from the right. Rodri connected the play with his passing, recognising exactly when to switch to give Doku service on the left. Arsenal, who had been pressing high themselves for periods of the first half, were now defending with all eleven players behind the ball.

The first goal came from that right-side pressure. Bernardo Silva swung a cross from the right channel, Kepa got two hands to it and dropped it, and O'Reilly headed into the empty net from two yards. The second goal arrived four minutes later through the same mechanism: Nunes floated a cross from deep on the right, O'Reilly made a late run to the back post and powered a clean header into the far corner. City had identified the pattern, drilled it in training, and executed it twice in four minutes.

What is genuinely difficult to sit with is that Arsenal created enough to have won this match. Riccardo Calafiori struck the far post in the 74th minute. Gabriel Jesus, introduced as a substitute, hit the crossbar with a header in the 87th minute. The margin between 0-2 and 2-2 was a matter of centimetres on two separate occasions. City were better across the ninety minutes, but the honest version of this final is considerably closer than the scoreline suggests.

Arteta said after the match that he would not do anything differently. He cited the principle of rewarding contribution, the fact that Kepa had played every round and earned his place. He is right about the principle. The outcome was wrong, and both things can be true simultaneously.

Kepa has now lost all three League Cup finals he has appeared in, 2019 with Chelsea, 2022 with Chelsea, and 2026 with Arsenal. That is not a comment on his character; it is a record. What is harder to argue away is this: the best goalkeeper at Wembley on Sunday was not Kepa Arrizabalaga. It was James Trafford, who made the save that effectively kept City in a final they were losing at the time. Kepa made the error that gifted the first goal. In a final decided by fine margins, those two contributions were the difference.

David Raya kept fifteen Premier League clean sheets this season. He watched this from the stands. That is the complete and honest version of the selection debate, and it needs to be stated plainly rather than dressed up in the language of fairness and reward.

The "nearly men" narrative will run hard this week. It will come from the usual places, carried by the usual voices, with the usual absence of context. Arsenal have now lost their last four League Cup finals, and that is a fact that invites a certain kind of column, a certain kind of television segment, and a certain kind of punditry that conflates a cup competition record with a verdict on an entire season.

We are nine points clear at the top of the Premier League with seven games remaining. We are in the Champions League quarter-finals against Sporting Lisbon. We have an FA Cup quarter-final against Southampton in a fortnight. The squad that lost at Wembley on Sunday is the same squad that has been the best side in English football for the majority of this season. One defeat in one competition, decided by a goalkeeping error and four minutes of defensive disorganisation, does not alter that.

Losing a cup final at Wembley hurts. In front of 32,000 Arsenal supporters who have waited six years for a trophy, it hurts considerably more than that. But the mature response to Sunday afternoon is to accept what went wrong, give credit to a City side that executed their plan with real quality, and refocus on the two competitions where we remain very much alive.

The league is still ours to lose.