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The last time Newcastle won a Premier League game at the Emirates, Andy Carroll was an Arsenal transfer target and the year was 2010. Since then, they have come to N5 thirteen times in the league, and left with twelve defeats and one draw. We have scored 34 goals against them and conceded only six.

The reason that matters is simple. The national media are currently writing about Arsenal as if we are the team in freefall. We are not. It is Newcastle who are in bad form, having suffered four straight defeats in all competitions and eight losses in their last eleven Premier League matches.

In fact, they have not scored more than two goals in their last ten visits to the Emirates combined. Eddie Howe has never won a Premier League game here. Every available data point, stripped of hysteria, says this is a game we should win.

And yet I will not pretend it is going to be that straightforward. We have spent the whole season learning a lesson the table keeps teaching us. Fixtures that look like coasting opportunities are where we have leaked points.

Let’s rewind to February, when we went two goals up at Molineux against a Wolves side that was, is, and will remain rooted to the bottom of the Premier League. A Hugo Bueno goal, a 94th-minute equaliser from debutant Tom Edozie, and the momentum of that run started to shift. A 2-2 draw at the worst team in the division. Those were two points thrown away to a side we should have beaten comfortably.

Then the game against Bournemouth at home on April 11. We were nine points clear and had the chance to stretch the lead to twelve. and we produced an open-play xG of 0.19 — the second-lowest recorded in any Arsenal Premier League home match on Opta's database. Junior Kroupi and Alex Scott scored at either end of a performance that Paul Merson called "sloppy" and that Arteta himself described as a "big punch in the face" in his post-match press conference. That was the afternoon that opened the door for City and turned a nine-point advantage to a table where City now sit above us on goals scored.

The pattern is consistent. When we feel a fixture is routine, we do not get three points. Newcastle, for all their decline under Howe, will arrive at the Emirates knowing exactly what a defeat would do to us. They are a wounded animal with nothing tangible to play for except upsetting the cart of a team chasing a first title in 22 years. That is enough motivation for them.

The bigger picture is that Saturday's match is the opening question of a three-game week that could define the season. We have to win on Saturday, then fly to Madrid on Wednesday to get a result in the first leg of a Champions League semi-final against Atletico. Then we face Fulham at home on May 2, four days after Madrid.

Our squad is still missing Mikel Merino long-term, Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori working towards returns, and Bukayo Saka with an outside chance for Saturday but a more realistic target of the Atletico first leg.

That is a genuine puzzle for Arteta. Does he hold back starters with an eye on Madrid and risk dropping two more points at home? Or does he push the same XI for 90 minutes and risk arriving at the Metropolitano on fumes? There are no clean answers, to be honest. What I hope is that Arteta resists the temptation to over-rotate. The league is where our primary ambition still lives. We are level on points and level on goal difference with City, who sit above us only on goals scored. Every Premier League match from here is a de facto cup final, and Saturday is the one in front of us.

We need to show personality on the pitch. We need to start fast, put the ball in the Newcastle penalty area early, and stop inviting the kind of anxious atmosphere that has crept in at home lately. The fans will bring what they always bring and the players have to do their part.

We also need to come through it unscathed. One more soft-tissue injury in a squad already running on patched-up parts and the whole run-in becomes a different conversation.

This is a huge week. We have the ability, we just need the belief has to match it. A win on Saturday is an absolute requirement and everything else will follow.