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The country has already written the script. Arsenal go to the Etihad, overwhelmed by injuries and wobbling form, and City put the title race back in the balance. Pep Guardiola's side are in form, at home, and operating with the momentum of a team that senses an opportunity. Every pundit on every back page has told you this is a hiding waiting to happen. I do not believe it and neither should you.

City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games against Arsenal, dating back to 2015. That is the story the media and the pundits have been telling us since the time we lost to Bournemouth and City won their game against Chelsea away at Stamford Bridge. However, what they are not telling us is the other side of the story. Arsenal are unbeaten in our last five Premier League games against City overall, having lost 12 in a row against them before this run. We have learned how to play this fixture. We have learned how to stay in it, how to absorb pressure, how to hurt them.

The formula of a winnable game at the Etihad is not really complicated. It requires a disciplined defensive structure, a midfield that does not panic in possession, and a striker who can hold the ball and bring others into play. This is a formula that has held us in good stead recently. We have lost just two of our last 30 away Premier League games. We know how to travel, how to grind. We just need to follow the same formula today to come away with a result from the Etihad.

City have failed to win each of their last three Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table, failing to score in all three matches. That is not a coincidence, because when they face a side that is organised, compact, and willing to stay in the game, they find it harder to crack them open. We do not need to outplay them. We just need to be hard to beat, be clinical when the chance arrives, and trust the process Arteta has spent four years building.

Eberechi Eze will be key player for us today. He has either scored or assisted in each of his last three appearances against City in all competitions, including setting up Gabriel Martinelli's 90th-minute equaliser in the reverse fixture. He has the technical quality to find the pockets City's high line leaves open, and the composure to make something of it when he does. If we are going to nick this, it will likely run through him.

A win today will restore a nine-point lead with five games remaining. Five games after that, against opponents City will not enjoy either. The mathematics of this title race is still in our favour, but mathematics require points. And points at the Etihad will require something beyond just a defensive plan. We need to believe that we belong here, that our squad, although depleted, is still good enough to go to one of the hardest grounds in European football and come away with something.

I have been watching football long enough to know the difference between a team that is genuinely falling apart and a team that has hit a rough patch at the worst possible moment. This is the latter. The bones of what Arteta has built are still there. The defensive record, the away form, the tactical intelligence is still there. We have the players to do it, even without the ones we are missing. We have the tactical blueprint and the recent head-to-head record to draw confidence from.

What we need now is to walk out there and act like we believe it.