Six weeks ago they were telling us the quadruple was on. Wembley happened, Nico O'Reilly headed twice in four second-half minutes, and that conversation died instantly. Tomorrow night, with Southampton standing between us and an FA Cup semi-final, the same people have repackaged the story. Treble. New word, same breathlessness, same media cycle spinning regardless of what is actually happening inside London Colney.

What is actually happening is ten players returning from international duty broken or barely fit. That is Arteta's real problem tomorrow, and it is a considerably more interesting one than whatever trophy narrative the back pages need this week.

The volume of withdrawals became its own story before any ball was kicked. By the time Martín Zubimendi left the Spain squad with a knee problem, the tenth Arsenal player to pull out of international duty this window, the narrative had already been written: Arsenal were gaming the system, protecting players, behaving suspiciously. Thomas Tuchel pushed back. After sending Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka home, the England manager told the media that both players were in clear discomfort and that keeping them would have made no sense.

The facts bear that out. So here is what the injury list actually says, what Arteta is likely to do with the squad available to him, and why getting the selection calls right tomorrow matters well beyond the next 90 minutes.

Eberechi Eze has been out since picking up a calf injury in the Champions League win over Leverkusen on 17 March, meaning he missed the Carabao Cup final and will miss tomorrow. Mikel Merino has not played since undergoing foot surgery and is effectively done for the season. Noni Madueke suffered a knee injury playing for England against Uruguay, was seen in a brace afterwards, and will not feature. Piero Hincapieleft the Ecuador squad after testing, with no confirmed timeline for his return.

The rest of the list is considerably softer. Saka, Rice, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes, Jurrien Timber, Leandro Trossard and Martin Odegaard have all been assessed as touch-and-go at worst, with several of them available for tomorrow, though Arteta will shield as many as possible with the game against Lisbon on Tuesday.

The selections that feel close to certain: Kepa Arrizabalaga starts in goal for cup competitions regardless of what happened at Wembley. Ben White starts at right-back. Cristhian Mosquera, who had a strong international break with Spain's under-21 side, is likely to partner Riccardo Calafiori in central defence, with Saliba and Gabriel protected for Tuesday. Myles Lewis-Skelly is almost certain to play at left-back. Christian Norgaard holds the midfield base. The decisions with genuine uncertainty sit around the attacking positions. Odegaardis closing in on a return from his knee problem, and there is a real possibility he starts tomorrow to build match fitness before Lisbon rather than being thrown in cold against Sporting. Kai Havertz operates as the central midfielder with attacking licence. Gabriel Martinelli has been the most productive Arsenal player in this FA Cup campaign, with four goals and an assist from the third round onwards, more than any other Arsenal player, which makes his inclusion close to inevitable. Max Dowman starts in the absence of Saka and Madueke. The teenage forward has already demonstrated in the Mansfield win that he can handle pressure moments in knockout football. Viktor Gyökeres leads the attack. There is no serious case for resting the league's leading scorer when Arsenal need to break down a Championship defence on the road.

The temptation when reading "Championship side" is to relax. Southampton have made that temptation cost people this season. Under Tonda Eckert, who took over in November and was confirmed on a permanent contract in December, Southampton have gone 14 games unbeaten across all competitions. They beat Doncaster 3-2 in the third round, Leicester 2-1 after extra time in the fourth, and then won 1-0 at Fulham in the fifth. This is not a team stumbling through the competition.

They also have their own absentees tomorrow. Flynn Downes and Kuryu Matsuki are both suspended after accumulating yellow cards at Craven Cottage. Mads Roerslev is out for the season with a knee injury. The balance of selection problems, while not as dramatic as Arsenal's, is real.

Everything about tomorrow's selection is structured around Tuesday. The decisions Arteta makes at St Mary's will tell you more about his Sporting plans than any press conference answer. If Saliba and Gabriel do not feature, that is not weakness. If Rice sits out entirely rather than being managed through 60 minutes, that is Arteta communicating something about the condition he is in.

Arsenal have not lost away from home in the Premier League all season. Their away form is the foundation on which this title challenge has been built. Lisbon will test the same qualities: composure, defensive organisation, and the ability to manage a game in an atmosphere designed to unsettle. Getting through tomorrow without further injury, with the right players protected, is the actual objective. The FA Cup semi-final is a week after the Sporting second leg. Everything connects.

Arsenal's record in this competition is relevant context. They have reached the FA Cup semi-finals on multiple occasions under Arteta and gone on to win the tournament on each of the last four occasions they reached that stage. They last went out at the quarter-final stage to Watford in the 2015-16 campaign.

Southampton will make this difficult. Their home form under Eckert is tight, their defensive structure has improved significantly, and they have beaten Premier League opposition already this season. The question is not whether Arsenal find it hard. It is whether Arteta has sequenced his squad correctly so that the players who matter most on Tuesday are fresh, the players trusted with tomorrow are capable of getting the job done, and nobody else picks up an injury on the south coast.

I think he has. Gyökeres, Havertz, Martinelli and Dowman is an attack capable of breaking a Championship defence. The concern is the first 20 minutes, when a makeshift back line adjusts, when the crowd at St Mary's reaches its loudest, and when Arsenal will need to avoid conceding the kind of early goal that reshapes the evening.

Navigate that, and we are in the semi-finals.